Or maybe it will
Guest Post by Norris Whiston
The following graph of an Antarctic ice core sample covers Earth’s last 800,000 years. It was done by the British Antarctic Survey (Natural Environment Research Council) and reported 14 November 2016. {Amos14Nov2016} {Mulvaney2016} The double graph shows the correlation between atmospheric CO2 in the top graph and temperature in the bottom graph. The CO2 lows are around 190 ppm (parts per million); the highs around 270 ppm. It doesn’t sound like a lot, but obviously is when it comes to Earth’s climate. The graph shows a cycle of approximately 100,000 yrs.
There are lots of highs, lows, and zigzags everywhere. As some people love to say, weather changes constantly – changes are normal. They are right. Weather does and those zigzags would agree. Throughout those 800,000 years, Earth has had vicious storms and enormous floods. Earth has had droughts, wildfires, and, when heavy rains came, erosions. It has seen large fresh water lakes created, emptied, expansive areas parched, soils blown away, and large deserts created. It has seen incredible changes in sea levels, had islands created, and islands washed away. Earth has also had multiple ice ages, continental plates move, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and has been hit by objects from space. All many times.
However, since most changes were localized or slow enough, most life had time to adapt or migrate. In all those times, there wasn’t such rapid melting of Earth’s Poles, destruction of the oceans, and ruination of land ecosystems and food systems. Recent CO2 changes have already required plants, insects, animals, and humans to either migrate or to die off. {UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) October2018} {Zoological Society of London & World Wildlife Federation2016} {Audubon2014} {World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 9September2014} {World Bank14November2016}
In those turbulent 800,000 years, species have evolved and others have become extinct. Around 530,000 ya (years ago) Neanderthals came into existence, around 350,000 ya Homo sapiens, and around 50,000 ya humans met and mated with Neanderthals affecting 1–3 % of our DNA.
Between 11,500 and 7000 ya, humans began to domesticate animals and, with stone axes, clear forests for farming. After 3500 ya, with the advent of bronze and later iron axes, from the fallout of increasing deforestation and the loss of natural recycling nutrient-filled deadwood, the bones of wild animals in Ireland from 90 archaeological sites were already showing a loss of nitrogen caused by exposed soils’ and consequent plants’ nitrogen sources. {Green13June2018} {Guiry2018} Since nitrogen is a key to plant’s chlorophyll and to plant and animal proteins, this was a significant happening. It is much like nitrogen losses in the Maritimes which have contributed to forests regressing to the plants which they once were, shortly after the ice age, which required only thin soil: grasses, sedges, aspen, birch, alder, tamarack, and spruce. {Sperduto21} {Fensome189} Soil scientists have declared clearcutting is not sustainable! {Keys2016} {Lahey2018}
Besides nitrogen, exposed and warmed soils have also lost magnesium, potassium, and particularly calcium to leaching; phosphorus to runoff and erosion; and CARBON to the atmosphere. {Bandy1999} {Federer1989} 2000 ya! “Scientists estimate that the Earth contained approximately 1,000 billion tons of carbon in living biomass 2000 ya. Since that time, humans have reduced that amount by half.” {Schramski2015}
Before those 800,000 years, building Earth’s present day atmospheric conditions had taken much of our planet’s time and nature’s effort. 3.5 billion years ago, atmospheric CO2 “concentrations were between 30 and 100 times than present [2016] levels” and “global temperatures could have been between 30 and 50° C”. {Bradshaw2016} Around 480 mya (million years ago), when mosses evolved, the Earth’s atmospheric levels of CO2 “are thought to have been 16 times higher than they are now, and average global temperatures are thought to have been 25°C, around 10°C higher than they are now [2012].” {Lenton2012} Between 330 mya and 140 mya, ferns and conifers could only bring the CO2 down to 3 times the current levels {Bradshaw2016}. This is because conifers don’t store water and, though they photosynthesize very early in the spring, are relatively inefficient at photosynthesis compared to flowering plants. {Wohlleben102} {Simonin2018}
140 mya, flowering plants (hardwoods) began to evolve smaller genetic material / genome, and could build smaller cells. “In turn, this allows greater carbon dioxide uptake, and carbon gain from photosynthesis.” {Briggs14January2018} {Simonin2018} Additionally, a study of 673,046 trees by the US Dept. of Interior found the oldest trees work best, not 40 year old trees. Looking at the oldest trees, why wouldn’t they work best? {Stephenson2014} {Quinn16Jan2014}
What chance would saplings have? “Research has documented that for many years after a clearcut, a resprouting forest emits more CO2 than it absorbs.” {Carter2008} “Plantations can sequester only a quarter of the CO2 that a functioning woodlands can, and converting forests to plantations actually releases carbon trapped in soil.” {Graber-Stiehl3March2016} “Scientists say halting deforestation [is] ‘just as urgent’ as reducing emissions.” {Milman4Oct2018} {Climate and Land Use Alliance October2018} {Lansky2016}
The graph shows, over the last 800,000 yrs., Earth’s CO2 ppm “natural” range, has been 190 to 270 ppm. The thing is, the Earth’s atmosphere is now [May 2018] at 411 ppm. {Mauna Loa Observatory & NOAA} On this graph of the last 800,000 years, there is nothing like 411 ppm. Additionally, over the past 66 MILLION YEARS (two major extinctions ago), the Earth has never had more CO2 put into its atmosphere per year than this year [2018]. {Zeebe et al 2016} {Amos21March2016} What’s happening is not “natural”!
Many rationalize “their little bit won’t hurt”. They wait, wanting someone else to change first. Individuals and families wish to warm and amuse themselves with carbon-fueled energy and play with carbon- run toys and vehicles. People want to make money from creating energy and fuels. They want to call those fallen trees and remnants of harvests just “waste”. That so-called waste could have recycled hard-won forest nutrients and carbon-sequestered soils. They want to cut hardwood trees and shrubs, chip, and send them to England, France, throughout North America and locally for biomass energy or biofuels, and claim it causes no harm {Booth2014}. They don’t know or are indifferent to the FACT that the older trees and especially hardwoods sequester far more efficiently than the young replacement trees and that future forest nutrients are found in the remnant deadwood.
There are 7.6 billion people on Earth. It soon will be 10 billion. Even those, who pick up loose kindling to keep a small fire going or cook a picnic meal, are adding carbon to an atmosphere that can’t take much more.
Our Earth is in grave trouble. There is no reason for ignorance. The science is there. We have arrived at the “Final call to save the world from ‘climate catastrophe’” {McGrath8October2018} {UN’s IPCCOctober2018}
People need to have new eyes which think. Eyes that appreciate what older trees do. Eyes to see the difference between aspen, birch, tamarack, and spruce forests and the older mixed elm, hemlock, oak, beech, ash and maple forests. Eyes to see what is lost when the sides of forests are opened. Eyes to see and understand what happens to exposed soils. Eyes to see and appreciate the most necessary use for so-called wastes. With new eyes people can make appropriate changes and work within forest-covered areas. Each of Earth’s 7.6 billion people’s little bits don’t have to hurt.
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Norris Whiston has a BSc in Civil Engineering from University of Rhode Island and Masters in Education from Acadia. Norris is now a retired public school educator and writer of books and materials on nature, environment, history, and genealogy. He also helped develop, build and interpret 35 kilometers of hiking trails in Earltown.
View more about Norris Whiston
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
Amos, Jonathan. 14 November 2016. “Antarctic Quest to Find ‘Oldest Ice’” Audio and article BBC News http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37953424 (MANY LINKS, GREAT GRAPH showing the 800,000 ice data on Deuterium isotopes (temperature proxy) and CO2)
Amos, Jonathan. 21 March 2016. “Rate of Carbon Emissions Put In Context.” BBC News http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35867438 Based upon Zeebe, et al. 2016.
Audubon (National Audubon Society). September 2014. Audubon’s Birds and Climate Change Report: A Primer for Practitioners. National Audubon Society, New York. Contributors: Gary Langham, Justin Schuetz, Candan Soykan, Chad Wilsey, Tom Auer, Geoff LeBaron, Connie Sanchez, Trish Distler. Version 1.2. http://climate.audubon.org/sites/default/files/Audubon-Birds-Climate-Report- v1.2.pdf Summary at 10 September 2014 https://www.audubon.org/news/climate
Bandy, LeRoy and Barbara Bandy. 1999. “The Case against Intensive Forest Management in Maine.” The Maine Woods. Winter 1999 – Volume 2 Number 2. http://www.forestecologynetwork.org/BANDY22.htm within http://www.forestecologynetwork.org/tmw.htm
Booth, Dr. Mary. 2 April 2014. Trees, Trash, and Toxics: How Biomass Energy Has Become the New Coal Pelham, Massachusetts: Partnership for Policy Integrity 81 pp. (PFPI driven by data) http://www.pfpi.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/PFPI-Biomass-is-the-New-Coal-April-2-2014.pdf Executive summary p 5, useful graphs p 17, toxic air pollution p 38. [Based upon analysis of 88 air emissions permits for biomass plants in 25 states submitted to US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Contact information: Mary S. Booth, PhD | Director, Partnership for Policy Integrity mbooth@pfpi.net | landline: 413-253-3256 | mobile: 917-885-2573 skype: marysbooth
Bradshaw, John E. January 2016. “Plants – Evolution of Plants.” Plant Breeding: Past, Present and Future. [xxv] DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-23285-0 https://books.google.ca/books?id=8OO9CwAAQBAJ&pg=PR26&lpg=PR26&dq=atmospheric+Ca rbon+flowering+plants+140+mya&source=bl&ots=tBugMo- hoH&sig=o5LxzgNC56tyRTDQxU835OPL1js&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjs2fet9N7XAhVK7 oMKHawtBjwQ6AEINDAF#v=onepage&q=atmospheric%20Carbon%20flowering%20plants%20 140%20mya&f=false [Readings4.1]
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British Antarctic Survey (Natural Environment Research Council) 14 November 2016 Press Release “Quest begins for oldest ice on Earth” https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/quest-to-find-oldest-ice- on-earth/
Carter, Jonathan. Fall 2008. “Climate Change and Forest Restoration Campaign” The Maine Woods Volume 10 number 1 http://www.forestecologynetwork.org/tmw.htm . Also within http://www.forestecologynetwork.org/climate_change/climate_change.html Based upon research of Stephen Wofsy, Harvard University atmospheric chemist; Thomas Peterson, Penn State University; and others.
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Earth System Research Laboratory. 12 Sept. 2016 “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Global Monitoring Division, U.S. Department of Commerce https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html [A new graph can be found every single day.] [This map in motion can be seen at Emily Maguire and Tom Nurse, BBC / circa Nov 2015 and in a video Fatoyinbo-Agueh, Lola 10 Sept. 2014 – Biosphere and Carbon Cycle: 13:00.]
Federer, C. Anthony; James W. Hornbeck, Louise M. Tritton, C. Wayne Martin, Robert S. Pierce, and C. Tattersall Smith. 1989. “Long-term depletion of calcium and other nutrients in eastern U.S forests.” Environmental Management September 1989 Volume 13 (5):593-601.
Fensome, Robert A.; Graham L. Williams. ed. Chapters by Sandra M. Barr, John H. Calder, Robert A. Fensome, Leslie R. Fyffe, David J. W. Piper, Ralph R. Stea, John A. Wade, Graham L. Williams, and Reginald A. Wilson. 2001. The Last Billion Years – A Geological History of the Maritime Provinces of Canada. Halifax, Nova Scotia: Atlantic Geoscience Society printed by Nimbus Publishing 212 pp.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) 2016. “State of Food & Agriculture (SOFA) – Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security” Rome. ISBN 978-92-5-109374-0 http://www.fao.org/3/a-i6030e.pdf
Global Forest Watch (GFW) http://earthenginepartners.appspot.com/science-2013-global-forest . An interactive map where one can zoom in on specific areas of the world is at: Still active in January 2019. https://www.globalforestwatch.org/map
Gorman, Michael. 8 November 2016 “Nova Scotia to Use New Forestry Tool and Update Soil Data” CBC http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/natural-resources-clear-cut-forestry-nutrients- acid-rain-1.3841695
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IPCC. (UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 6 October 2018. “Global Warming of 1.5°C – Summary for Policy Makers.” Printed October 2018 by the IPCC, Switzerland. https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf Within https://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.shtml The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988, and endorsed by the UN General Assembly, to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. The October 2018 report was written by 86 lead authors from 39 countries. The authors are all scientists who have been nominated by governments and international institutions. Their meeting was held in late September and early October in Incheon, South Korea.
Keys, Kevin; Joshua D. Noseworthy, Jae Ogilvie, David L. Burton, and Paul A. Arp. 2016. “A Simple Geospatial Nutrient Budget Model for Assessing Forest Harvest Sustainability across Nova Scotia, Canada.” Open Journal of Forestry 2016, 6, 420-444 http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ojf.2016.65033
Lahey, William. August 2018. An Independent Review of Forest Practices in Nova Scotia & Addendum Halifax, NS: Natural Resources https://novascotia.ca/natr/forestry/Forest_Review/
Lansky, Mitch. April 2016. The Double Bottom Line: Managing Maine’s Forests to Increase Carbon Sequestration and Decrease Carbon Emissions Maine: 36pp. For document download see: www.meepi.org/lif/managingforestcarbon.docx See also http://www.mofga.org/Publications/MaineOrganicFarmerGardener/Fall2016/ManagingMainesForests/tabid/3213/Default.aspx Referenced at http://nsforestnotes.ca/2017/01/04/readings-from-maine- mitch-lansky-on-managing-forests-to-increase-carbon-capture-and-reduce-carbon-emissions/
Lenton, Prof. Timothy M. (Exeter University), Michael Crouch, Martin Johnson, Nuno Pires and Prof. Liam Dolan (Oxford University). 2012. “First Plants Cooled the Ordovician” Nature Geoscience 5: 86-89 (1 February 2012)
Mauna Loa Observatory and NOAA Global Monitoring Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration / NOAA Research 2017. “Last 1 year – Up-to- date weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html [There is lots worth exploring in that site. I would recommend the CO2 movie. NMW]
McGrath, Matt 5 February 2016. “Wrong Type of Trees’ In Europe Increased Global Warming” BBC http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35496350 Based upon Naudts5February2016. & Based upon interview of Dr. Kim Naudts who carried out the study while at the Laboratory of Climate Science and Environment in Gif-sur-Yvette, France Science in Action on the BBC World Service
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Milman, Oliver. 4 October 2018. “Scientists say halting deforestation ‘just as urgent’ as reducing emissions.” The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/04/climate-change-deforestation-global-warming-report (LINKS) Based upon Climate and Land Use Alliance
Mulvaney, Dr. Robert interviewed by Jonathan Amos. 14 November 2016. “Antarctic Quest to Find ‘Oldest Ice’” (AUDIO – 12:02) BBC News http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37953424 (MANY LINKS, GREAT GRAPH showing the 800,000 ice data on Deuterium isotopes (temperature proxy) and CO2)
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Sperduto, Dan and Ben Kimball. 2011. The Nature of New Hampshire – Natural Communities of the Granite State. Hanover and London: University Press of New England. 341 pp QH105.N4S64 2011 [It is well organized. For each ecosystem, it has ecosystem charts, general photographs, particularly great drawings of ecosystems and adjacent habitats, and indicates where in New Hampshire one can find the ecosystem.]
Stephenson, N. L., A. J. Das, R. Condit, S. E. Russo, P. J. Baker, N. G. Beckman, D. A. Coomes, E. R. Lines, W. K. Morris, N. Rüger. E. Álvarez, C. Blundo, S. Bunyavejchewin, G. Chuyong, S. J. Davies, Á. Duque, C. N. Ewango, O. Flores, J. F. Franklin, H. R. Grau, Z. Hao, M. E. Harmon, S. P. Hubbell, D. Kenfack, Y. Lin et al. 2014. “Rate of tree carbon accumulation increases continuously with tree size.” Nature 507 90-93 (6 March 2014 web pub. 15 Jan. 2014) DOI: 10.1038/nature12914 http://www.forestsforever.org/news/stephenson_et_al_2014_tree_growth_nature129141.pdf
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World Bank 14 November 2016 “Natural Disasters Force 26 Million People into Poverty and Cost $520bn in Losses Every Year, New World Bank Analysis Finds” released at COP22 Conference in Marrakech, Morocco. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2016/11/14/natural- disasters-force-26-million-people-into-poverty-and-cost-520bn-in-losses-every-year-new-world- bank-analysis-finds
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report released 9 September 2014 “The Greenhouse Gas Bulletin”. Press release in Geneva, https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/no-1002-record- greenhouse-gas-levels-impact-atmosphere-and-oceans Press releases are about 2 pages and found at: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release The yearly greenhouse bulletins, usually 8 pages (some 4 pages), are found at: https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/library/wmo-greenhouse-gas-bulletin Summarized by McGrath, Matt. 8 Sept.2014. “Greenhouse Gas Levels Rising At Fastest Rates since 1984.” BBC News http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-29115845
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Zimmer, Carl. 13 December 2018. “Narrower Skulls, Oblong Brains: How Neanderthal DNA Still Shapes Us.” NY Times https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/13/science/neanderthals-humans-brains- skulls.html (LINKS) [Sapiens and Neanderthals split 530,000 ya.]
Zoological Society of London (ZSL) and World Wildlife Federation (WWF). 2016. The Living Planet Report – Risk and Resilience in a New Era. (VIDEO 2:09) World Wildlife Federation (WWF) http://assets.wwf.org.uk/custom/lpr2016/ http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/lpr_2016/ To see a summary or to get the report go to http://www.livingplanetindex.org/home/index There is also a video with Lambertini, Marco, Director General of the WWF International. “Living Planet Report, 2016 – Marco Lambertini.” WWF https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMsxHaeyzNs (VIDEO 2:09)
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